Outlook 2019: The Most Bullish Views So Far
Monday, 7 January 2019 11:30 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

The gold bulls are back. After a year of seeing weak gold prices, investors and analysts alike have adopted renewed optimism for the new year. While sentiment in our Outlook 2019 series has been a mixed bag so far, there's no denying that some experts were dogmatically in the œbull camp.

Here are the most bullish views we've aired in the series so far, and the rationales backing up these views.

2019 will see several tailwinds sway in gold's favor, including an end to the dollar's run and more turbulent equities markets, said Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares.

œI think we can have quite a significant change if there's a rate rise in December. I think that really increase the likelihood of a stock market sell-off coming into next year. So, we've already got a strong dollar as you know at the moment, I think that an increase in rates at this level, it's difficult to see how much further the dollar can go from here, Rhind told Kitco News.

Equities are already showing signs of trouble, Rhind said.

œThe VIX is starting to increase again, which is obviously the level, or measure of volatility in the market, and so that's come off its lows , and I think that we can see more volatility, especially going into next year, he said.

Rhind noted that gold typically doesn't rally right away during an equities stock off since the yellow metal is not negatively correlated to stocks as strongly as it is to the dollar. When stocks fall, the immediate market reaction is usually to flock to save havens like the dollar, and gold will only see its moment to shine when investors reallocate assets further down the line, Rind said.

It's not a matter of whether gold will go up in 2019, but rather, how much it will go up by, according to Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

œTo me, the big picture for gold I find very disconcerting, meaning I'm fearful how much it could go up. It looks to me like natural gas, meaning gold is compressed in the narrowest range in the last two years, maybe 36 months, McGlone told Kitco News.

Despite gold's lackluster performance, a lot of the drivers are turning positive, particularly gold™s divergence from the dollar, he said.

œThe volatility of the stock markets is turning up, from the lowest ever¦and the dollar has had a substantially strong year. The trade-weighted dollar is the best performing major asset class on the planet this year. It™s up 8% this year, yet gold is trickling, it™s up/down 6%. To me, I see a sign of divergent strength, he said.

Several macroeconomic factors could line up to form a bullish environment for gold in 2019, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, said Erik Norland, senior economist at the CME.

œFor precious metals, the real key is going to be the strength or the weakness of the U.S. dollar. If the U.S. dollar turns out to be a weak currency in 2019, watch for gold to potentially rally quite significantly, Norland told Kitco News.

Other factors include a rising inflation rate which could be bullish for gold, as the yellow metal is seen as an inflation hedge.

œIf we see the labor market continuing to tighten, with unemployment rates falling even further, if we see some upside pressure on inflation, that could be extremely bullish for gold, Norland said.

A new bull cycle for gold is in store for 2019, and investors could see prices go up to $1,500 an ounce, said E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming.

Tucker said that $1,900 an ounce could be expected in gold's next cycle peak, but that won™t happen any time soon.

œWe're calling for $1,500 next year, that's a 22% increase in the price of gold, it'll be one of the best performing markets in a very, very volatile year for equities, Tucker told Kitco News.

Source: Kitco

 

RELATED NEWS

Little conviction in gold market as trade talks ebb and flow
Monday, 25 November 2019 11:27 WIB

Confusion and uncertainty dominates the gold market as traders and investors continue to react to shifting trade sentiment between China and the U.S. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows Wall Street analysts nearly caught in a three-way tie, while only a slight majority of retail investor...

Unique split on Wall Street to keep investors guessing the gold price this week
Monday, 18 November 2019 11:02 WIB

This week will be an interesting one for gold with Wall Street uniquely split between expectations of higher and neutral gold prices, while Main Street is still very bullish, according to the latest Kitco News gold price survey. It's been a messy week for gold prices as the metal was unable to brea...

Less than 50% of Main Street optimistic on gold prices rally; Wall Street outright bearish
Monday, 11 November 2019 17:10 WIB

Gold is not ending the last week on a strong note and there is not much conviction among Wall Street analysts and Main Street investors that the selling pressure will end this week, according to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey. The gold market was hit with strong technical selling pressure...

What happens to the gold price when Fed cuts rates this week?
Monday, 28 October 2019 11:28 WIB

With the Federal Reserve rate cut already priced in for this week, what will actually happen to the gold price once the central bank cuts for the third time this year? Analysts sounded positive as gold's new technical momentum took prices temporarily to $1,520 an ounce, hitting a two-week high. Sin...

Gold Prices Gridlocked, Bears Take Wheel
Monday, 21 October 2019 13:10 WIB

Although Wall Street bears have an advantage, ultimately, gridlock in the gold market means prices are not going anywhere fast, according to the latest results from the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey. Main Street investors remain bullish on gold in the near-term. Retail investors have been bullish o...

ANOTHER NEWS
Gold prices settle higher, head lower after Fed decision
Thursday, 12 December 2019 02:22 WIB Gold futures settled higher on Wednesday, then inched lower in electronic trading after the Federal Reserve held a key U.S. interest rate steady at a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, as expected. Following the Fed news, which came after gold futures...

DISCLAIMER

Seluruh materi atau konten yang tersaji di dalam website ini hanya bersifat informatif saja, dan tidak dimaksudkan sebagai pegangan serta keputusan dalam investasi atau jenis transaksi lainnya. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala akibat yang timbul dari penyajian konten tersebut. Semua pihak yang mengunjungi website ini harus membaca Terms of Service (Syarat dan Ketentuan Layanan) terlebih dahulu dan dihimbau untuk melakukan analisis secara independen serta memperoleh saran dari para ahli dibidangnya.