TDS Looks For $1,300/Oz Gold Prices By End Of 2019
Tuesday, 2 October 2018 21:22 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

Gold prices may remain under pressure in the near term but are likely to rally into year-end and 2019 with the help of an eventually softening U.S. dollar and many other factors, says TD Securities.

'We forecast the yellow metal to average $1,225/oz in the last three months of 2018, with prices moving into the $1,300s by the end of 2019,' the Canadian bank said in a research note on Monday.

The precious metal, which has been on the defensive for much of 2018, weakened at the end of last week after the Federal Open Market Committee not only hiked U.S. interest rates by another 25 basis points but continued to hint at more tightening to come. Additionally, Italian budget uncertainty left the euro under pressure against the U.S. dollar. Precious metals tend to move inversely to the U.S. currency.

Spot gold fell as far as $1,181.05 an ounce last week, its lowest level since mid-August.

TDS analysts said they expect choppy range-bound trading between $1,180 and 1,215 per ounce in the near term.

'Indeed, fiscal stimulus and worries that rates are set to rise ever closer to the dots [based on the Fed™s so-called dot-plot] will increase the opportunity costs of holding zero-yielding assets,' TDS said. 'Until other Western central banks meaningfully tighten their policy, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to Western and EM [emerging-market] currencies is quite likely to remain a significant headwind that will suppress positioning for gold bugs. As such, we don't expect much sustainable upside in the near term, and expect prices to remain under pressure for now.'

But eventually, that should change, TDS said. The key will be a reversal of U.S. dollar strength.

'At the same time, considering that exposure is extremely skewed toward short positioning [in gold], there is a very strong case to be made for a robust rally as factors currently depressing the market, such as rate expectations, the USD and weak emerging markets, eventually reverse course and trigger a bout of short covering, TDS said.

The bank projected the dollar will start weakening 'materially' in 2019 and that real U.S. 10-year yields are unlikely to rise much above 1% as trade worries and diminishing returns on U.S. fiscal stimulus moderate optimism.

'The fast pace of U.S. debt growth even at the peak of the cycle, equity-market correction risk and emerging primary physical deficits should also serve as support,' TDS said.

Gold should top $1,300 until the final three months of 2019, TDS said.

œBut we do believe that it will be a choppy road higher due to the recent USD jump higher, and ongoing trade issues that are depressing the Chinese currency and growth expectations, TDS said. œAmbiguity surrounding how hawkish the U.S. central bank will be with over the next twelve months will create volatility and may drive prices lower still.

Source: Kitco News

RELATED NEWS

Wall St., Main St. Look For Gold To Regain Its Shine
Monday, 11 February 2019 11:38 WIB

Wall Street dan Main Street keduanya tetap bullish dalam survei emas mingguan Kitco News, pada dasarnya mempertimbangkan penurunan minggu lalu sebagai koreksi di pasar yang masih dalam tren naik. Lima belas profesional pasar mengambil bagian dalam survei Wall Street. Ada 11 suara, atau 73%, menyeru...

Wall St., Main St. Expect Gold Prices To Remain Buoyant
Monday, 4 February 2019 21:59 WIB

Wall Street dan Main Street melihat emas untuk terus bergerak lebih tinggi minggu ini, menurut survei emas Kitco News. Banyak pedagang dan analis mengutip Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal yang dovish setelah pertemuan kebijakan minggu ini, di mana para pejabat mengindikasikan mereka berhenti dalam sikl...

Commerzbank: Meeting Fed, Jobs Impact Could Be Mixed For Gold
Tuesday, 29 January 2019 04:43 WIB

Emas mungkin mendapat dorongan ke atas jika Federal Reserve tidak menaikkan suku bunga minggu ini tetapi kemudian bisa terluka jika laporan pekerjaan bulanan memperlihatkan kekuatan, kata Commerzbank. Sejumlah acara berita dapat memengaruhi pasar minggu ini, termasuk pemungutan suara Parlemen Inggt...

Gold To Top $1,300 In Next 3 Months, Rise 10% In 2019 - Goldman Sachs
Monday, 14 January 2019 22:00 WIB

Emas akan terus bersinar sebagai aset safe-haven dengan harga terdorong ke atas $ 1.300 per ons dalam tiga bulan ke depan, menurut perusahaan investasi raksasa Goldman Sachs. Dalam sebuah catatan kepada klien, Jeff Currie, kepala penelitian komoditas global di bank, mengatakan ia menaikkan perkiraa...

Outlook 2019: The Most Bullish Views So Far
Monday, 7 January 2019 11:30 WIB

Para bulls emas kembali. Setelah setahun melihat harga emas lebih lemah, investor dan analis sama-sama mengadopsi optimisme baru untuk tahun baru. Meskipun sentimen dalam seri Outlook 2019 kami telah bervariasi sejauh ini, tidak dapat disangkal bahwa beberapa ahli dogmatis berada di kamp "bull". Be...

ANOTHER NEWS
Oil Prices Advance on Trade Hopes
Monday, 18 February 2019 13:48 WIB Oil prices gained on Monday in Asia, supported by hopes that the U.S. and China might be able to resolve their trade disputes after both sides reported progress in the latest negotiations that ended in Beijing last week. U.S. President Donald...

DISCLAIMER

Seluruh materi atau konten yang tersaji di dalam website ini hanya bersifat informatif saja, dan tidak dimaksudkan sebagai pegangan serta keputusan dalam investasi atau jenis transaksi lainnya. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala akibat yang timbul dari penyajian konten tersebut. Semua pihak yang mengunjungi website ini harus membaca Terms of Service (Syarat dan Ketentuan Layanan) terlebih dahulu dan dihimbau untuk melakukan analisis secara independen serta memperoleh saran dari para ahli dibidangnya.