BMO Sees Average Gold Price of $1,280/Oz in 2018
Wednesday, 20 December 2017 05:00 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

Gold prices will average $1,280 an ounce in 2018, with buying interest, as an inflation hedge and due to loose monetary policy globally, offset by a strong U.S. dollar, said BMO Capital Markets in a report late Monday.

œA slow and steady interest-rate hike cycle proposed by the Federal Reserve and subdued investor demand are expected to keep prices in check and cap any significant upside potential, the bank said.

Analysts described the metal as œremarkably stable over the last two years, compared to the broader commodity complex, saying gold prices were range-bound during normalization of monetary policy and as dissipating geopolitical risks meant less safe-haven interest. This was offset by building inflationary pressures, which meant some market participants are looking to increase their allocation to gold as a hedge.

œWe see benefit coming from still-loose monetary policy and renewed inflation concerns, but potential for headwinds from dollar strength, BMO said.

Macroeconomic data point to a strong U.S. economy, with the labor market nearing full employment, BMO said. U.S. inflation is forecast to slowly move toward the long-term target of 2%, BMO continued. The market anticipates at least two more Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2018 in the wake of another 25-basis-point tightening in December.

œWith this outlook already priced in at the current price levels, we do not expect a significant deviation from the expected range-bound outlook over the near term unless the U.S. Fed drastically shifts from its current policy framework, BMO said.

Traders will be closely watching for any monetary-policy signals from incoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell, although he is expected to maintain the course set by outgoing Chair Janet Yellen, BMO said.

Meanwhile, gold should benefit from œover-allocation by investors in emerging-market nations who have a lack of other options, BMO said.

The bank™s $1,280-an-ounce outlook for gold in 2018 is a downward revision of 1.5% from its previous estimate. Analysts then look for a $1,250 gold average in 2019.

Source: Kitco News


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