BOE Notes Rising No-Deal Brexit Risk as Rate Kept Unchanged
Thursday, 20 June 2019 18:20 WIB | FISCAL & MONETARY |BOE

The Bank of England said the perceived risk of crashing out of the European Union without a deal had risen as they unanimously voted to keep policy unchanged.

While officials, led by Governor Mark Carney, said they still see the need for interest-rate hikes in coming years if their forecasts bear out, they also acknowledged that investors are taking a different view than the bank's assumption of a smooth Brexit.

That has pushed down the pound and market expectations for future interest rates, the Monetary Policy Committee said in the minutes of its June meeting. 

The market moves œhighlighted the ongoing tension between the MPC's forecast conditioning assumption of a smooth Brexit and the assumptions about alternative Brexit scenarios that were priced into the financial market variables, the minutes said.

The BOE last month indicated that more rate hikes would be needed over the next few years to keep inflation under control, and said the market curve doesn't reflect that. Since then investors have increased bets in the other direction, with the market showing a greater likelihood of a cut rather than an increase as the next move.

That assumption about an orderly departure from the EU looks more fragile now. All the remaining candidates in the race to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May have refused to exclude the prospect of leaving without a new arrangement in place.

The panel voted 9-0 to hold the key rate at 0.75%. All 63 economists in a Bloomberg survey correctly predicted Thursday's decision. They cut their prediction for second-quarter growth to stagnation after a previous estimate of 0.2%.

The BOE reiterated its guidance for limited and gradual rate hikes in the minutes, but also joined other major central banks in recognizing the weaker global outlook. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi this week pledged new stimulus if the outlook doesn™t improve. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday opened the door to a rate cut as soon as next month.

With Brexit now delayed until Oct. 31, the BOE said it doesn't expect investment to pick up before then. It said that downside risks have increased since May, and underlying growth has weakened slightly in the first half.

Source : Bloomberg

RELATED NEWS

Fed Chief Powell Says He Thinks Core Inflation Picked Up a Bit in June
Wednesday, 17 July 2019 00:16 WIB

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the central bank now estimates that a key measure of core inflation increased in June to its highest level in four months but added that, despite the acceleration, inflation pressures œremain muted. In a speech to the Bank of France in P...

RBA Monitoring Job Market Closely, to Adjust Rates If Needed
Tuesday, 16 July 2019 08:53 WIB

Australia's central bank is focused on the jobs market and said it will adjust policy if needed to support economic growth and keep inflation on track to return to target. In minutes of its July 2 meeting, when it cut interest rates for a second month to a record-low 1%, the Reserve Bank noted wage...

Powell says U.S. economy was hit by 'confidence shock' - it has only partly recovered
Thursday, 11 July 2019 23:00 WIB

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. economy was hit by a severe œconfidence shock in May from which it has only partly recovered. œYou saw business confidence surveys¦quite negative, fairly broadly, Powell said, in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee...

'Many' Fed Officials Said in June They'd Be Willing to Cut Interest Rates if Uncertainty Still Weighs on Outlook, Minutes Show
Thursday, 11 July 2019 01:18 WIB

Many Federal Reserve officials said in their meeting in June that they would be willing to cut interest rates if the economy continued to struggle in coming weeks, according to minutes of the discussion released on Wednesday. Officials appeared caught off guard in mid-June about sudden "significant...

Powell speech: Weak inflation could be even more persistent than Fed currently anticipates
Wednesday, 10 July 2019 21:00 WIB

In his prepared statement to be delivered at his semi-annual testimony to the Congress, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, reiterated that the Fed will act 'as appropriate' to sustain the U.S. economic growth. With the initial reaction to Powell's statemen...

ANOTHER NEWS
Hong Kong stocks close week on a high (Review)
Saturday, 20 July 2019 03:31 WIB Hong Kong shares ended the week on a strong note Friday, jumping more than one percent on hopes for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. The Hang Seng Index added 1.07 percent, or 303.74 points to 28,765.40. The...

DISCLAIMER

Seluruh materi atau konten yang tersaji di dalam website ini hanya bersifat informatif saja, dan tidak dimaksudkan sebagai pegangan serta keputusan dalam investasi atau jenis transaksi lainnya. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala akibat yang timbul dari penyajian konten tersebut. Semua pihak yang mengunjungi website ini harus membaca Terms of Service (Syarat dan Ketentuan Layanan) terlebih dahulu dan dihimbau untuk melakukan analisis secara independen serta memperoleh saran dari para ahli dibidangnya.